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Moetasim Ashfaq

ORNL

Biography

Moetasim Ashfaq is a scientist for the Computing and Computational Sciences Directorate at ORNL. Ashfaq is an atmospheric physicist with training in both physics and atmospheric science. He leads the high-resolution regional climate modeling effort at ORNL Climate Change Science Institute. Ashfaq is an expert in the use of global and regional climate models, and hydrological models for understanding past, present and future climate variations in response to natural and anthropogenic changes in climate dynamics at varying time-scales, and their implications for natural and human systems. In particular, his research focuses on the development of approaches that can reliably identify the dominant mechanisms governing the climate system response at global, regional and hydrologic-basin scales, quantify the model-based uncertainties associated with those physical processes, and create a foundation of a multi-disciplinary Earth System modeling framework that will enable more comprehensive, rigorous investigation of the challenges posed by climate variability and climate change.

 

 


Research

Earth system modeling, hydrological cycle, climate change and variability, climate change impacts


Publications

  • Naz, B. S., S.-C. Kao, Shih-Chieh, M. Ashfaq, H. Gao, G. Sudershan, D. Rastogi, Effects of climate change on streamflow extremes and implications for reservoir inflow in the United States (2017), Environ. Res. Letters, in review.
  • Rastogi D., S.-C. Kao, M. Ashfaq, R. Mei, E. D. Kabela, S. Gangrade, B. S. Naz, B. L. Preston, N. Singh, V. G. Anantharaj (2017), Effects of Climate Change on Probable Maximum Precipitation: A Sensitivity Study over the Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa River Basin, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos, revisions submitted.
  • Hagos, S., R. Leung, M. Ashfaq, K. Balaguru (2017), South Asian Monsoon Precipitation in CMIP5: A Link between Inter-model Spread and the Representation of Equatorial Convection, Journal of Climate, in review.
  • Paull SH, D. E. Horton, M. Ashfaq, D. Rastogi D, L. D. Kramer, N. S. Diffenbaugh, A. M. Kilpatrick (2017) Drought and immunity determine the intensity of West Nile virus epidemics and climate change impacts. Proc. R. Soc. B 20162078. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2016.2078
  • Ashfaq, M., D. Rastogi, R. Mei, D. Touma and R. Leung (2016), Sources of errors in the simulation of South Asian monsoon in CMIP5 GCMs, Climate Dynamics, doi: 10.1007/s00382-016-3337-7
  • Ashfaq M., D. Rastogi, R. Mei, S.-C. Kao, S. Gangrade, B. S. Naz, D. Touma, High-resolution ensemble projections of near-term regional climate over the continental U.S. (2016), Journal for Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, doi: 10.1002/2016JD025285
  • Pagan, B. R., M. Ashfaq, D. Rastogi, S.-C. Kao, B. Naz, D. R. Kendall, J. S. Pal (2016), Extreme hydrological events drive reduction in water supply in the southwestern United Sates, Environ. Res. Letters, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/9/094026
  • Naz, B. S., S.-C. Kao, M. Ashfaq, D. Rastogi, R. Mei, and L. C. Bowling (2016), Regional Hydrologic Response to Climate Change in the Conterminous United States Using High-resolution Hydroclimate Simulations, Global and Planetary Change, 143, doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.06.003
  • Mani, A., F. T.-C. Tsai, S.-C. Kao, B. S. Naz, M. Ashfaq, and D. Rastogi (2016), Conjunctive Management of Surface and Groundwater Resources under Projected Future Climate Change Scenarios, J. Hydrol., http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.06.021.
  • R. Mei, M. Ashfaq, D. Rastogi, R. Leung, F. Dominguez (2015), Dominating Controls for Wetter South Asian Summer Monsoon in the 21st Century, Journal of Climate, 28, 3400–3419, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00355.1
  • Touma, D., M. Ashfaq, M. A. Nayak, S. C. Kao, and N. S. Diffenbaugh (2015), A Multi-model and Multi-index Evaluation of Drought Characteristics in the 21st Century, Journal of Hydrology, in press, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.12.011
  • Kao, S. C., M. Sale, M. Ashfaq, R. U. Martinez, D. Kaiser, Y. Wei, and N. S. Diffenbaugh (2014), Projecting changes in annual hydropower generation using regional runoff data: an assessment of the United States federal hydropower plants, Energy, accepted.
  • Kapnick, S. B., T. L. Delworth, M. Ashfaq, S. Malyshev, and P. C. D. Milly (2014), Snowfall less sensitive to warming in Karakoram than in Himalayas due to a unique seasonal cycle, Nature Geosci, doi:10.1038/ngeo2269.
  • Paull SH, D. E. Horton, M. Ashfaq, D. Rastogi D, L. D. Kramer, N. S. Diffenbaugh, A. M. Kilpatrick (2017) Drought and immunity determine the intensity of West Nile virus epidemics and climate change impacts. Proc. R. Soc. B 20162078. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2016.2078
  • Ashfaq, M., D. Rastogi, R. Mei, D. Touma and R. Leung (2016), Sources of errors in the simulation of South Asian monsoon in CMIP5 GCMs, Climate Dynamics, doi: 10.1007/s00382-016-3337-7
  • Ashfaq M., D. Rastogi, R. Mei, S-C. Kao, S. Gangrade, B. S. Naz, D. Touma, High-resolution ensemble projections of near-term regional climate over the continental U.S. (2016), Journal for Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, doi: 10.1002/2016JD025285
  • Pagan, B. R., M. Ashfaq, D. Rastogi, S-C. Kao, B. Naz, D. R. Kendall, J. S. Pal (2016), Extreme hydrological events drive reduction in water supply in the southwestern United Sates, Environmental Research Letters, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/9/094026
  • Naz, B. S., S.-C. Kao, M. Ashfaq, D. Rastogi, R. Mei, and L. C. Bowling (2016), Regional Hydrologic Response to Climate Change in the Conterminous United States Using High-resolution Hydroclimate Simulations, Global and Planetary Change, 143, doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.06.003
  • Mani, A., F. T.-C. Tsai, S.-C. Kao, B. S. Naz, M. Ashfaq, and D. Rastogi (2016), Conjunctive Management of Surface and Groundwater Resources under Projected Future Climate Change Scenarios, J. Hydrol., in press.
  • R. Mei, M. Ashfaq, D. Rastogi, R. Leung, F. Dominguez (2015), Dominating Controls for Wetter South Asian Summer Monsoon in the 21st Century, Journal of Climate, 28, 3400–3419, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00355.1
  • Touma, D., M. Ashfaq, M. A. Nayak, S. C. Kao, and N. S. Diffenbaugh (2015), A Multi-model and Multi-index Evaluation of Drought Characteristics in the 21st Century, Journal of Hydrology, in press, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.12.011
  • Kao, S. C., M. Sale, M. Ashfaq, R. U. Martinez, D. Kaiser, Y. Wei, and N. S. Diffenbaugh (2014), Projecting changes in annual hydropower generation using regional runoff data: an assessment of the United States federal hydropower plants, Energy, accepted.
  • Kapnick, S. B., T. L. Delworth, M. Ashfaq, S. Malyshev, and P. C. D. Milly (2014), Snowfall less sensitive to warming in Karakoram than in Himalayas due to a unique seasonal cycle, Nature Geosci, advance online publication.
  • Singh D., D. E. Horton, M. Tsiang, M. Haugen, M. Ashfaq, R. Mei, D. Rastogi., N. C. Johnson, A. Charland, B. Rajaratnam, N. S. Diffenbaugh (2014), Severe Flooding in Northern India in June 2013: Causes, Historical Context, and Changes in Likelihood, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society [in "Explaining Extremes of 2013 from a Climate Perspective"]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95 (9), S58–S61. 
  • Oubeidillah, A. A., Kao, S.-C., Ashfaq, M., Naz, B. S., and Tootle, G. (2013): A large-scale, high-resolution hydrological model parameter dataset for climate change impact assessment for the conterminous United States, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 67–84, 2014, doi:10.5194/hess-18-67-2014.
    Ashfaq M., S. Ghosh, S-C Kao, L. C. Bowling, P. Mote, D. Touma, S. A. Rauscher and N. S. Diffenbaugh (2013), Near-term acceleration of hydroclimatic change in the western U.S., Journal of Geophysical Research, doi: 10.1002/jgrd.50816
  • Leung, L. R., T. Ringler, W. D. Collins, M. Taylor and M. Ashfaq (2013), A Hierarchical Evaluation of Regional Climate Simulations, Eos Trans. AGU, 94(34), 297
  • Diffenbaugh, N. S., M. Scherer and M. Ashfaq (2013), Continued global warming intensifies snow-dependent hydrologic extremes in the northern hemisphere, Nature Climate Change, 3(4), 379-384.
    Skinner, C.B., M. Ashfaq and N.S. Diffenbaugh (2012), Influence of 21st century atmospheric and sea surface temperature forcing on West African climate, Journal of Climate, 25(2), 527-542.
    Sale, M. J., S-C. Kao, M. Ashfaq, D. P. Kaier, R. Martines, C. Webb and Y. Wei (2012),
  • Assessment of the Effects of Climate Change on Federal Hydropower, Technical Manual 2011/251, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN.
  • Diffenbaugh N.S., M. Ashfaq, and Martin Scherer, Transient regional climate change: a high-resolution, century-scale, ensemble simulation of climate in the continental United States (2012), J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 116, D24111, doi:10.1029/2011JD016458.
    Diffenbaugh N. S., M. A. White, G. V. Jones, and M. Ashfaq (2011), Climate adaptation
  • wedges: a case study of premium wine in the western United States, Environ. Res. Letters, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/6/2/024024
  • Ashfaq, M., L. C. Bowling, K. Cherkauer, J. S. Pal, and N. S. Diffenbaugh (2010), Influence of climate model biases and daily-scale temperature and precipitation events on hydrological impacts assessment: A case study of the United States, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 115, D14116, doi:10.1029/2009JD012965.
  • Diffenbaugh, N. S., and M. Ashfaq (2010), Intensification of hot extremes in the United States, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L15701, doi:10.1029/2010GL043888.
  • Ashfaq, M., C.B. Skinner, N.S. Diffenbaugh (2010), Influence of SST biases in future climate projections, Climate Dynamics, doi: 10.1007/s00382-010-0875-2
  • Ashfaq, M., Y. Shi, W. Tung, R. J. Trapp, X. Gao, J. S. Pal, and N. S. Diffenbaugh (2009), Suppression of south Asian summer monsoon precipitation in the 21st century, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L01704, doi:10.1029/2008GL036500.
  • Pal, J.S., F. Giorgi, X. Bi, N. Elguindi, F. Solmon, X. Gao, S.A. Rauscher, R. Francisco, A. Zakey, J. Winter, M. Ashfaq, F.S. Syed, J.L. Bell, N.S. Diffenbaugh, J. Karmacharya, A. Konare, D. Martinez, R.P. da Rocha, L.C. Sloan, and A. Steiner (2007), Regional climate modeling for the developing world: The ICTP RegCM3 and RegCNET, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 88(9), 1395-1409.
  • Diffenbaugh, N.S., and M. Ashfaq (2007), Response of California Current forcing to mid-Holocene changes in insolation and sea surface temperature, Paleoceanography, 22, PA3101, doi:10.1029/2006PA001382.

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